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LOL Twitter, which is currently most notable for making journalists and neo-Nazis happy, is valued at more than Marvel + Lucasfilm + Pixar.Permalink On twitter.com
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Mood +11 🙂
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Now, call me crazy, but I sincerely doubt that Twitter will ever make as much profit as any ONE of those companies.Permalink On twitter.com
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Mood +1 🙂
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But ok. Tech-suspend-belief time: Twitter and all tech companies have totally fair valuations if: - They learn how to make a profit (tk)...Permalink On twitter.com
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Mood +4 🙂
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- They can scale up without it costing them as much as it costs now, or by making more significant money so profit > scale cost...Permalink On twitter.com
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Mood +3 🙂
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- They, as companies, exist for about the next 50 years while constantly scaling up profitably.Permalink On twitter.com
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Think about all the assumptions that JUST the last point includes: Because there are so many...On twitter.com
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- Product, built as a transient in a transient time, will either remain viable, pivot at a high continual rate, or add features continuallyPermalink On twitter.com
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- Managing a product in a constant state of change in order to keep up with web trends will never cause costs to exceed profits.Permalink On twitter.com
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- The internet won't undergo a radical shift at the level of the radical shift that 10ish years ago made social a Thing.Permalink On twitter.com
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- Server costs will never rise. - The underlying economics of how profit is made online won't change against their methodology...Permalink On twitter.com
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- The platform will continually grow in active users. - No one will cut into their userbase through competition...Permalink On twitter.com
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The fundamental assumptions go on and on and most of them are 90% sure to be impossible.Permalink On twitter.com
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But the fundamental craziness is that these valuations make the assumption that use will go up forever while cost plateaus due to "scale"Permalink On twitter.com
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Yeah, I'm sure that's never going to go wrong.Permalink On twitter.com
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Anyway, re: recode.net/2016/9/26/13062276/disney-won-t-buy-twitter The only people likely to buy Twitter IMO are media companies, because they don't do due diligence.Permalink On twitter.com
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And also because all media companies firmly believe that Social Media is somehow magicking away profits that would come back If Only X.Permalink On twitter.com
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Mood +2 🙂
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It's fun to think about the inevitable names that won't last the test of time. - VerizonAOLTwitter - TNBC - TwitterYahooMic (TYM)Permalink On twitter.com
Mood +4 🙂