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Ok, so I figured it out. Picard's personal arc is coming to terms with his childhood abuse so he can love again and the series arc is his ancestor has to go on the mission to discover a new life form so that we can have "hope" and then we get a speech about hope for the future...
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Because this is neoliberal Star Trek so we can't actually change anything, no changes to the status quo, no, just the presence of life on another planet is going to make humanity hopeful and that somehow bends the arc of history towards the good timeline. I've figured it out.
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The time travel storyline is perfect for this because the excuse is "can't step on any butterflies". But of course that's nonsense, you can see how the framework could be about changing things in the past in DS9's Past Tense.
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I am taking bets. Who wants to bet against me here? I'm 100% sure that's where this ends.
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Also, Future's End in Voyager is a good example of how to handle a time travel story in a good, particularly Star Trek way.
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I'm truly terrified by what horrible bs they're filming with the full TNG cast for season 3.