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alextcone swodinsky robinberjon robleathern aripap reconbot I mean it is generally worse than that for any of the chumboxes. Assume: They can make revenue promises to publishers solely on the basis of maximizing their inventory by minimizing the number of impressions it takes to get a click. That's via user identification and targeting...Permalink On twitter.com
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alextcone swodinsky robinberjon robleathern aripap reconbot If their user targeting gets less accurate, which it will since they have no capability or contractual mechanisms to sync with first parties, they are less able to optimize their inventory. That means the count of impressions to get to a click goes steeply up...Permalink On twitter.com
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alextcone swodinsky robinberjon robleathern aripap reconbot If that happens they have to vastly increase their inventory. But they do that by projecting revenue and battling each other with upfront revenue guarantees. They won't be able to project revenue accurately any more, and what they will absolutely will go down...Permalink On twitter.com
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alextcone swodinsky robinberjon robleathern aripap reconbot And since they pay out on impressions but take revenue in on clicks, and their primary customers are arbitrage depending on them for their cheapest cost per click, it means their going to start losing inventory and buyers simultaneously...Permalink On twitter.com
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alextcone swodinsky robinberjon robleathern aripap reconbot Historically their response to inventory loss has been to buy targeted ads to place their units in low price highly user targeted 3rd party ad units. Those will no longer be available or will be dependent on high cost 1st party agreements. So they have no way to recover...Permalink On twitter.com
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alextcone swodinsky robinberjon robleathern aripap reconbot Their last gasp will be an attempt to sync IDs with publishers for whom the whole promise was that they'd be low touch. Also, their user ID tracking system has always been crappy and inaccurate IMO. Accuracy will show the percent of their clicks that were bots...On twitter.com
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alextcone swodinsky robinberjon robleathern aripap reconbot Five or six years ago was the last time I used a chumbox to buy traffic for a company. My back of the napkin estimate at the time was that 50-80% of clicks were IVT and they were doing basically no checks. That doesn't fly with a UID2 sync or anything like that...Permalink On twitter.com
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alextcone swodinsky robinberjon robleathern aripap reconbot So whatever it looks like their problem is, it is going to be at least twice as bad. And their value as a provider of low cost clicks to low competence or ethically compromised sites goes away too, so even less customers. It's likely a total collapse from both sides.Permalink On twitter.com
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alextcone swodinsky robinberjon robleathern aripap reconbot (And if you think my back of the napkin estimate of IVT is inaccurate... my basis is the amount of money I was able to get back every month in refunds from the chumbox by proving that percent of traffic was bots, using my own hand-built metrics systems)Permalink On twitter.com
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