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The thing about microtargeting is that it doesn't really matter if it works or not because the people paying for it *do* believe it works & therefore will follow that capability with their wallets as long as it persists. Like any other market, ad tech value persists on belief.
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Some microtargeting is real, some of it is ad tech spinning complete & total bullshit, & some of it is somewhere in-between, but because the system is black boxes inside black boxes the people with the wallets can't distinguish between the two and so really it doesn't matter.
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The point is that microtargeting is basically a theology and you can believe in it or not and find studies to support either position; and you can believe you're doing it or not; but none of that is actually relevant to the discussion of if it is ethical to do.
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Similarly, the core problem privacy advocates need to solve is not to stop specific microtargeting but to remove the capability to make that claim from the marketplace. That's why the end of 3p is important, it's not about stopping specific tracking, it's about removing capacity.
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Similarly, antitrust action is *incredibly* important... but it is not actually going to stop micro-targeting or privacy-invasive advertising from happening without your consent. Because the issue isn't *just* specific actors, but the capabilities being allowed by law.
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Every time the conversation dives into the hole of "is microtargeting real" I despair a little. It's a distraction. Even if we could prove it *didn't* work, the vast data collection built into ad tech in which all your user data moves and none is tradable is fundamentally wrong.
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This is the trap: your personal data, even if it is collected with a high degree of accuracy, is likely worth much. But even if it was, or even if the accuracy is low, it shouldn't be collected without your consent...
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*isn't likely worth much
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According to studies >60% of banners go unseen (nngroup.com/articles/why-advertising-doesnt-work-on-the-web/) and, depending on whose paper you read, between 2% and 98% of the digital ad market is fraud mashable.com/2016/06/09/ad-fraud-organized-crime/#NEIQuQmMSsqE. Like... even if the system functions, it isn't *working*.
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It doesn't work for users, it doesn't work for advertisers who, even by conservative estimates, loose billions to fraud that exists *somewhere* in the system ( campaignlive.co.uk/article/unilever-were-miles-ahead-pack-tackling-ad-fraud/1592052 ) and it clearly doesn't work for our civil society...
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The efficacy of ad tech is irrelevant to the need to reform it, whether the problem is that it is especially effective in invading our privacy or that it is especially effective in stealing dollars from advertisers. It is a market and it needs regulation.
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*in which all your user data moves and none of it is traceable